A journalist described as one of the few to correctly predict the papacy of Pope Francis has chimed in on who he thinks could be the next head of the Catholic Church.

Why It Matters

Francis died Monday at age 88 of what the Vatican described as a cerebral stroke that led to a coma and irreversible heart failure, ending 12 years of leadership in which he was viewed as a reformer of the Church and one who went against the grain of traditional pontiffs before him.

What To Know

According to a Time profile conducted when Francis officially began his papacy in 2013, journalist John Allen Jr. received praise based on a long profile he authored about the new pope who hailed from Buenos Aires, Jorge Mario Bergoglio.

Part of what drew Allen’s attention was the vote that ultimately led to Pope Benedict XVI becoming pontiff in April 2005, when Francis received the second-most votes among his fellow cardinals.

“The general consensus is that Bergoglio was indeed the ‘runner-up’ last time around,” Allen, formerly a National Catholic Reporter, wrote at the time. “He appealed to conservatives in the College of Cardinals as a man who had held the line against liberalizing currents among the Jesuits, and to moderates as a symbol of the church’s commitment to the developing world.”

“The fact that Allen, virtually alone, gave props in advance to the eventual pope was a vindication of his own hard-won expertise in covering one of the world’s most opaque bureaucracies,” Time described.

Allen, now editor of the Catholic news website Crux, spoke with Newsweek on Monday after the news of Francis’ death echoed around the globe.

“My first thought, I suppose, would just be a sense of shock,” Allen said. “Yesterday [Easter Sunday] we were all celebrating his triumphant comeback after that swing through St. Peter’s Square on the Popemobile.

“It seems like putting an exclamation point on how he had moved past [his illness]. As it turned out, it wasn’t his strength to come back. It was his swan song. … I’m struck by the void that he’s going to leave.”

Francis oversaw the Church during a period of dramatic change and turmoil in social and political corners worldwide, Allen noted, culminating in questions about wars in Ukraine and Gaza. There were also debates about how Catholicism plays a role in debates over poverty, climate change and immigration.

“On every one of those issues, Francis was singular and extraordinarily important choice,” Allen said. “It was impossible to do much serious analysis of the global conversation on those issues without factoring in what Pope Francis and his Vatican team were saying and doing. So, I think, in terms of legacy, he leaves some very big shoes to fill.”

Contenders To Become Next Pope

Allen said that every papal election basically comes down to a referendum on the pontiff that just finished his duties, so the Church could continue in the same direction as it has the past dozen years or so—or can “shake things” up and go in another direction.

Those looking for continuity and a pope to take the mantle from Francis and lead in a similar scope should be aware of Pietro Parolin, who’s currently the Vatican Secretary of State; or Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, president of the Italian Episcopal Conference.

If the Church wants change, names to consider include Peter Erdo, the Hungarian cardinal of the Roman Catholic Church who has served as the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and Primate of Hungary since 2003. Allen said he’s “probably the highest-profile conservative candidate.”

Other names include Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, a Congolese Catholic prelate who has served as Archbishop of Kinshasa and disagreed with Francis’ views on same-sex marriage blessings.

“I certainly think all those guys would get a look now if it occurs that neither one of these two camps, that is continuity or discontinuity, can get a straight two-thirds majority,” Allen said. “Then, you need a compromise candidate and certainly one figure there that many people would be looking at would be Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who is currently the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem.

“He’s the church’s top official in the Middle East, and I think the thinking might be that he has navigated the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for several years. That might prepare him to help lead the church through its own internal divisions and tensions.”

Oddsmaker website BetOnline posted updated odds Monday following Francis’ death on who the next pope will be. They say that Luis Antonio Tagle, the highest ranking Catholic in the Philippines, remains the favorite and his odds have improved 4/1 to 1/1 (he opened with 14/1 odds in 2022).

Parolin’s odds have improved from 5/1 to 2/1 after opening with 14/1 odds in 2022. Zuppi’s odds have improved from 28/1 to 6/1 after opening with 16/1 odds in 2022.

Another potential “dark horse” is Raymond Leo Burke, who has been critical of Francis’ views in the past and praised by U.S. President Donald Trump.

“I think most people would probably think of Cardinal Burke as perhaps a bit too much of a reach that is too dramatic a swing from the Francis style to whatever comes next,” Allen said. “I certainly think there will be some voters in the conclave, however, who will be interested in Cardinal Burke’s opinion.

“So, I think he may be more in a position to play the role of kingmaker rather than king himself.”

What People Are Saying

Former President Barack Obama on X: “Pope Francis was the rare leader who made us want to be better people. In his humility and his gestures at once simple and profound—embracing the sick, ministering to the homeless, washing the feet of young prisoners—he shook us out of our complacency and reminded us that we are all bound by moral obligations to God and one another.”

What Happens Next

Mourning and a public viewing of Francis’ body will continue until he is laid to rest. Afterward, the College of Cardinals will endure the conclave process to select Francis’ successor.

Allen said the past two conclaves, in 2005 and 2013, were over in a day and a half. He would be “shocked” if this conclave goes on for more than four or five days.